There’s a lot going around right now among disappointed Republicans about fraudulent or illegal behavior by Democrats in the 2020 election. Donald Trump and his most vocal supporters claim that the election was stolen. There is a disconnect here: Most of the theories of election misconduct, even if proven, would not change the vote totals enough to overturn the outcome. That does not mean that Republicans and conservatives should roll over and do nothing, but we should temper our expectations and not go chasing rumors and conspiracy theories without evidence. The goal should be to unearth genuine misconduct, expose it to the sunlight, and prevent its repetition.
Seven states were decided by less than three percentage points. Biden leads the counted votes in six of them (the other being North Carolina). Trump would need to flip 37 electoral votes in order to force an Electoral College tie, or 38 in order to be declared the winner. That means three states — four if Nevada is one and Pennsylvania isn’t. There is no precedent for anything like this, requiring a shift of over 47,000 votes to change the outcomes in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin and send the election to the House, or over 74,000 to flip Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. The margin in Michigan alone is a daunting 146,137 votes, a far cry from the 537-vote margin in Florida in 2000.
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