Does Trump Really Have a Republican Problem?

With Donald Trump’s ascension to a third presidential nomination all but assured, political analysts are scouring the results of the early GOP primary contests for clues that might reveal the contours of a Trump-Biden rematch. In an otherwise sleepy Republican primary season, South Carolina’s Saturday contest, in which the former president won just under 60 percent of the vote to Nikki Haley’s 39.5 percent, suffices for drama. But the excitement, such as it is, will have to wait until November.

Across the first three early contests in South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa, a consistent pattern has emerged: Trump underperforms his polling. The average of Trump’s performance in polls heading into the Iowa caucuses pegged his lead at just under 34 points over his nearest competitor, Ron DeSantis. In the end, Trump’s margin of victory was just shy of 30 points. Likewise, Trump went into the election in New Hampshire beating Haley by over 19 points in the polling average. He beat her by about eleven points. The spread in South Carolina favored Trump by over 23 points, but his margin of victory ended up at around 20 points.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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With Donald Trump’s ascension to a third presidential nomination all but assured, political analysts are scouring the results of the early GOP primary contests for clues that might reveal the contours of a Trump-Biden rematch. In an otherwise sleepy Republican primary season, South Carolina’s Saturday contest, in which the former president won just under 60 percent of the vote to Nikki Haley’s 39.5 percent, suffices for drama. But the excitement, such as it is, will have to wait until November.

Across the first three early contests in South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa, a consistent pattern has emerged: Trump underperforms his polling. The average of Trump’s performance in polls heading into the Iowa caucuses pegged his lead at just under 34 points over his nearest competitor, Ron DeSantis. In the end, Trump’s margin of victory was just shy of 30 points. Likewise, Trump went into the election in New Hampshire beating Haley by over 19 points in the polling average. He beat her by about eleven points. The spread in South Carolina favored Trump by over 23 points, but his margin of victory ended up at around 20 points.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.