Democrats are already arguing that last night vindicated the party’s position on abortion, that abortion absolutism is a winning message, and that the end of Roe was a major boon to their candidates. Similarly, Republicans who are disinclined to talk about abortion and even more disinclined to examine the systemic flaws and disunity within their party — and, by consequence, the weakness of candidates on the ballot in key swing-state races — will attempt to pin the GOP underperformance on Dobbs and abortion.
There is little evidence for these assertions. The results suggest that the poor Republican performance was due primarily to a slate of poor candidates, not the unpopularity of any particular element of the GOP platform. I’ll put it plainly: Donald Trump continues to be a significant drag on the GOP. Nearly every single one of his handpicked candidates failed or underperformed relative to other Republicans, in an economic climate highly favorable to the GOP. That’s the story of last night’s midterms.
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