Don’t Dismiss the Republican Anti-Trump Vote

There’s a nagging discrepancy between what pollsters find when they test a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and the share of the raw vote Trump has so far generated in Republican primary contests. In November, the polling suggests Trump can count on the support of roughly 90 percent of self-identified Republicans — exactly where he needs to be, according to the conventional wisdom. And yet, a significant number of GOP primary voters continue to say they are not sold on Trump’s candidacy. Some even indicate that they plan to actively oppose him. How do we reconcile this contradiction?

I wrote about the phenomenon in the wake of South Carolina’s primary in late February. “Trump’s ceiling, if he has one, is not made up of disaffected Republicans who still identify as Republicans,” I wrote at the time. Likewise, election analysts such as NBC News’ Steve Kornacki have taken up the question. He attributed the apparent inconsistency between the polls and the primaries to an obvious answer: Biden voters. In GOP primaries where independents are allowed to participate, these Democratic voters descended on their ballot boxes to vote against Trump. “They may not consider themselves Republicans, but they are supremely eager to vote, so why wouldn’t they join in en masse, especially with no meaningful contest on the Democratic side?” Kornacki asked.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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There’s a nagging discrepancy between what pollsters find when they test a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and the share of the raw vote Trump has so far generated in Republican primary contests. In November, the polling suggests Trump can count on the support of roughly 90 percent of self-identified Republicans — exactly where he needs to be, according to the conventional wisdom. And yet, a significant number of GOP primary voters continue to say they are not sold on Trump’s candidacy. Some even indicate that they plan to actively oppose him. How do we reconcile this contradiction?

I wrote about the phenomenon in the wake of South Carolina’s primary in late February. “Trump’s ceiling, if he has one, is not made up of disaffected Republicans who still identify as Republicans,” I wrote at the time. Likewise, election analysts such as NBC News’ Steve Kornacki have taken up the question. He attributed the apparent inconsistency between the polls and the primaries to an obvious answer: Biden voters. In GOP primaries where independents are allowed to participate, these Democratic voters descended on their ballot boxes to vote against Trump. “They may not consider themselves Republicans, but they are supremely eager to vote, so why wouldn’t they join in en masse, especially with no meaningful contest on the Democratic side?” Kornacki asked.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.