Don’t Fall for the New Syrian Regime’s Claims of Moderation

HTS’s membership rolls and track record do not inspire confidence that the group will lead to a free, inclusive, and prosperous Syria.

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Rebel fighters pose as they hold a Syrian opposition flag at the Umayyad Mosque after rebels seized the capital and ousted Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, December 9, 2024.

Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters

Hours after the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized Damascus and sent Bashar al-Assad packing to Russia, Western politicians and pundits began contemplating the possibility of a free, moderate, inclusive, and (perhaps even) democratic Syria. Experience urges two measures of caution for every one of hope.

HTS’s rise has sparked debates over whether the group, previously aligned with ISIS and al-Qaeda, has genuinely transformed. Despite being labeled a terrorist group by the United States in 2018, HTS claims to have moderated its ideology and governing style, especially since it started ruling a piece of Idlib province in 2017.

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About the Author

Lewis Libby

Lewis Libby is the senior vice president of Hudson Institute, and served as Vice President Dick Cheney’s chief of staff and national-security adviser from 2001 to 2005.

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About the Author

Nick Danby

Nick Danby is a research associate at The Marathon Initiative. He previously served as a U.S. Navy intelligence officer. He has been published in War on the Rocks, The Diplomat, and the Wall Street Journal, among other publications. He graduated from Harvard in 2020.

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