Echoes of the 1860 House Speaker Fight

A second protracted intra-Republican battle in a single year to choose a speaker of the House illustrates six things about the current situation of the party.

First, the size of the majority matters. House Republicans are still paying the price for the very narrow majority they won in 2022. That 222–213 majority is currently 221–212 due to one vacancy on each side; those will be filled by special elections for a Democratic seat in Rhode Island on November 7, and a Republican seat in Utah on November 21. Thus, Republicans can control the House with a 217-vote party-line majority only when five or fewer members of the caucus break ranks, and that will drop to four between November 7 and 21 (assuming those special elections play to type). Everything that is happening now would have been avoidable if the party had won another ten seats, or even another seven.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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A second protracted intra-Republican battle in a single year to choose a speaker of the House illustrates six things about the current situation of the party.

First, the size of the majority matters. House Republicans are still paying the price for the very narrow majority they won in 2022. That 222–213 majority is currently 221–212 due to one vacancy on each side; those will be filled by special elections for a Democratic seat in Rhode Island on November 7, and a Republican seat in Utah on November 21. Thus, Republicans can control the House with a 217-vote party-line majority only when five or fewer members of the caucus break ranks, and that will drop to four between November 7 and 21 (assuming those special elections play to type). Everything that is happening now would have been avoidable if the party had won another ten seats, or even another seven.