Forget about the national polls: The 2008 election, like all others, will be decided by the votes in particular states and congressional districts. If you know where to watch and what to look for, you can filter out much of the unnecessary noise in the evening’s election coverage.

What follows is a quick look not only at the most important states for the presidential race, but also at the House and Senate races to watch when you sit down on Tuesday night.

This first installment looks at important races in states whose polls close in the first hour, after seven o’clock.

7:00 p.m. EST

INDIANA (11 Electoral Votes)

Indiana is usually the first to report in presidential elections, and it always goes Republican. Most of the state’s polls close at 6 p.m., but two important Obama-friendly counties — LaPorte and Lake — are in the Central time zone and will not close until 7 p.m.

If John McCain loses this state, you can go to bed early in the secure knowledge that Barack Obama is the next president. On the other hand, if McCain surprises with a ten-point victory, it is a possible early sign that this cycle’s polling overstates Obama’s support all over the country.

Democrats will easily defend the three House seats they picked up here in 2006. They are also making a long-shot play for Rep. Mark Souder’s (R.) Fort Wayne seat. Challenger Michael Montangano (D.). is at least within striking distance. A loss for Souder would be a terrible sign for the GOP.

Gov. Mitch Daniels (R.) will easily win a second term over former Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D.)

KENTUCKY (8 Electoral Votes)

John McCain will win this one convincingly. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R.) is another story. He has run his re-election race based almost entirely on his ability to bring pork projects back to the Bluegrass State. McConnell is expected to defeat Lt. Gov. Bruce Lunsford (D.), but the result will be close.

In House races, the status quo should prevail. State Senator Brett Guthrie (R.) has a clear upper hand in his attempt to keep retiring Rep. Ron Lewis’s (R.) seat in the Republican column.

Rep. John Yarmuth (D.) will easily protect his Louisville district from former Rep. Anne Northup (R.), whom he defeated in 2006.

GEORGIA (15 Electoral Votes)

John McCain should win here, but the fact that there is any doubt has to be troubling for the GOP. Still, Republicans at all levels have consistently outperformed the polls in Georgia on Election Day for the last three cycles.

High black turnout for Obama will help force Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R.) into a very close finish against his Democratic opponent, former State Rep. Jim Martin.

Rep. Jim Marshall (D.), who barely survived the 2006 race, is expected to fend off a spirited Republican challenge from Rick Goddard (R.).

SOUTH CAROLINA (8 Electoral Votes)

The only reasonably possible surprise here would be a loss by Rep. Henry Brown (R.), which would portend a disastrous 40-seat loss for Republicans in the House. He should win, but it will be by a much smaller margin than expected. John McCain will carry the state without any problems.

VERMONT (3 Electoral Votes)

Barack Obama will have no problems here. The big question, though, is what happens to Gov. Jim Douglas (R.). He will easily defeat both of his opponents at the polls by double digits, but the election will go to the state legislature in January if he fails to get a majority of the vote. The vote will be very close.

VIRGINIA (13 Electoral Votes)

John McCain’s chances in this election hinge upon a series of unlikely victories in key states, and this is one of them. If he is lucky, the presidential results will come in very late after the polls close.

An Obama victory here would confirm the Democratic trend in the Washington, D.C., suburbs — as well as the Northern Virginia region’s growing dominance in the state’s politics. A McCain victory would provide a good reason to stay up for a few more hours, perhaps until Colorado is called.

Democrats are expected to pick up the House seat of retiring Rep. Tom Davis (R.) in Northern Virginia.

Rep. Thelma Drake (R.), who survived the 2006 cycle, is expected to win another tough fight this year in her Virginia Beach district against Glenn Nye (D.). Democrats also have their sights on a long-shot challenge against Rep. Frank Wolf (R.).

Former Gov. Mark Warner (D.) will pick up the Senate seat of retiring Sen. John Warner (R.).

7:30 p.m. EST

NORTH CAROLINA (15 Electoral Votes)

Despite the relatively early close of the polls, we may have to wait a while for the numbers to come in from North Carolina and Ohio. In North Carolina, high black turnout is expected to boost Obama, although McCain should still be considered the favorite. A loss here makes victory for McCain extremely improbable.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R.) may well lose her seat to state senator Kay Hagan (D.). The governor’s race, between Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue (D.) and Charlotte Mayor Patrick McCrory (R.), is neck-and-neck.

Rep. Robin Hayes (R.) is a survivor after squeaking out countless close elections in the 8th District. His repeat challenger, Larry Kissell (D.), has the upper hand after more than $2 million in expenditures against Hayes by the DCCC.

OHIO (20 Electoral Votes)

Going back to 1856, every Republican presidential candidate who has ever lost Ohio has one thing in common: Not a single one became president. A McCain win here is a necessary but not a sufficient criterion for a McCain presidency. Every realistic scenario for his victory requires it. Because he trails in the polls, a long night here is probably the best thing Republicans can hope for.

Meanwhile, at least four House races are worth your attention. The controversial Rep. Jean Schmidt (R.), who eked out a very close victory in 2006 over Victoria Wulsin (D.), is poised for another win.

Rep. Steve Chabot (R.) faces a tough race in his Cincinnati-area district against state House Minority Whip Steve Dreihaus (D.). The DCCC has spent more than $2 million against Chabot, who survived a strong 2006 challenge as well.

Republicans are in danger of losing two open House seats after a pair of key retirements. The Columbus-area 15th District, vacated this year by Rep. Deborah Pryce (R.) could go to her 2006 challenger, Mary Jo Kilroy (D.). The Canton-area 16th-District seat left empty by Rep. Ralph Regula (R.) may be ripe for a takeover by state Sen. John Boccieri (D.).

WEST VIRGINIA (5 Electoral Votes)

John McCain is expected to win this state convincingly. The release of Barack Obama’s explanation that he wants to make coal economically nonviable through his environmental policies will put an exclamation point on his defeat here.

Rep. Shelley Moore-Capito (R.) should survive a challenge by Anne Barth, former aide to Sen. Robert Byrd (D.).

Check back for more poll-closure updates later this afternoon.

– David Freddoso is a staff reporter for National Review Online and author of The Case Against Barack Obama.