Off-year elections never generate quite as much buzz as presidential years or midterms. But for the two rising Republican stars elected in 2009 — Virginia governor Bob McDonnell and New Jersey governor Chris Christie — the first Tuesday of this November will be a very consequential day for their time in office.

VIRGINIA

In the commonwealth, all 40 state senators are up for election for a four-year term, and all 100 state delegates are up for election for a two-year term. This year marks the first election under new legislative maps. Republicans control the House 59–39 with two independents, and feel confident of the potential for significant gains this year. Under the new lines, McDonnell carried 73 districts in the 2009 gubernatorial election.

The real contest is in the Virginia state senate, where Democrats hold a 22–18 majority.

“We’re on offense everywhere,” boasts J. Garren Shipley, communications director for Virginia’s Republican party. “All 16 of our incumbent Republican senators are in fine shape — only three have Democratic opposition. Two of our guys were drawn out, but we have two GOP-leaning open seats in exchange: the 22nd district in Central Virginia and the 13th district in Northern Virginia. Both look pretty good at this point.”

McDonnell and his team put a lot of effort into cultivating his reputation as an even-tempered man who can work with both parties, but they feel a Republican senate could make a difference in the scope of what the governor could accomplish in his final two years in office (Virginia governors are limited to one term).

“The governor’s legislative success rate to date with a divided General Assembly is 86 percent, a pretty good batting average,” says Tucker Martin, McDonnell’s communications director. “He’s shown he can get big proposals passed with bipartisan support. Now, if the senate does go Republican, and here I knock on wood, he would have the opportunity to really demonstrate how bold, positive, free-market-based proposals can help the private sector create jobs, spur economic growth, reform government, and improve the lives of our citizens. There’s still two weeks to go, though, and superstition precludes me from speculating further.”

“Despite aggressive gerrymandering, there are at least four or five really competitive races, and probably eight in play, all held by Democrat incumbents,” says Chris Jankowski, president of the Republican State Legislative Committee. “Right now, we believe the senate will shift control to the Republicans. It’s close.”

A big potential storyline of this year’s races could be the Republican comeback in Northern Virginia. The competitive senate races include senator Chuck Colgan’s bid to hold off Republican Tom Gordy in the 29th district, which includes Manassas, Manassas Park, and part of Prince William County; senator George Barker’s bid to hold off Republican Miller Baker in the 39th district, which includes parts of Fairfax and Prince William County and part of Alexandria; and senator Toddy Puller’s effort against former delegate Jeff Frederick in the 36th district, which includes parts of Fairfax, Prince William, and Stafford counties.

Jankowski notes that the key competitive districts in 2011 will also be competitive for a much higher-profile race a year from now: “We’re looking to build the senate majority on seats won in Northern Virginia, places like Prince William County — a county Obama won by 20 points — and Fairfax County. They are trending back Republican, which is a great setup for our party in 2012. These are suburban, competitive swing counties like certain ones in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida that will be important in next year’s presidential election.”

NEW JERSEY

In the Garden State, all of the 120 seats in the state legislature are up for grabs this November; each legislative district is represented by one senator and two assemblymen. Here the Republicans face a steeper uphill climb: Democrats currently control the senate with a 24–16 majority and control the assembly with a 47–33 majority. What’s more, the redistricting process did not go well for the GOP. When the reapportionment commission deadlocked along partisan lines, the tie was broken by an eleventh member appointed by the New Jersey Supreme Court — who signed off on the Democrats’ plan, designed to protect their incumbents.

Earlier this month, Governor Christie downplayed expectations, saying “Let’s remember, we’re operating under a Democratic map. . . . If we were to take back majorities this fall, that would definitely represent a tsunami.” So far, polling suggests he’s a factor in the legislative elections, but only a small net gain for GOP hopes. A Rutgers-Eagleton poll conducted in early October found that “of 603 likely voters polled, 28 percent said they will cast their vote next month in support of the governor, while 26 percent said they will vote to oppose him, while 42 percent said the governor won’t affect their vote.”

“Our challenge in New Jersey has some analogies to Wisconsin,” says Matt Walter, political director of the Republican State Legislative Committee, who is closely tracking the New Jersey races. “You have a Republican governor being respectful of taxpayers and trying to implement changes sustainable in the long term instead of runaway spending. . . . The interesting appeal of Chris Christie is not only does he have a stiff spine at taking on entrenched interests — in a state that has many of those, and many that are particularly well entrenched — but he offers what is not so much a pure anti-government message as one that says that ‘we’re not getting from government what we need,’ that ‘it needs to be leaner and more effective.’”

Walter highlights the example of Democratic state senator Jim Whelan, who “double dips” by collecting multiple salaries and participating in multiple pension plans. As the New Jersey division of PolitiFact lays out the issue: “Whelan’s salary as a state senator is $49,000 and he made nearly $67,500 as an Atlantic City public school teacher, according to state records current as of Oct. 15, 2010. He draws a monthly pension payment through PERS of more than $2,600 for his previous work as a government official and is enrolled in [the] state’s pension fund for teachers, according to state treasury documents and financial disclosure forms.” (For their part, Whelan’s allies at the New Jersey Democratic State Committee have sent out mailers attacking his opponent, Republican state assemblyman Jim Polistina, for making “nearly $70,000 in taxpayer-funded salaries — plus a government pension.”)

If they can’t win the legislature outright, Republicans are hoping for something of a mandate for Christie’s agenda and to generate some rising stars. Earlier this year, the RSLC launched its Future Majority Project, an initiative that includes the goal of recruiting 100 new Hispanic Republican candidates for state legislative office and the hope of electing 30 or more of them in the elections this year and next. In New Jersey, the committee has found four candidates, and is particularly high on Fernando Alonzo, a son of Cuban immigrants who has practiced law in New York and New Jersey. “[Alonzo’s] is a solid district as far as being a target for us,” Walter says: The 38th, in North Jersey, is traditionally one of the most competitive, and it has already seen the most campaign spending so far in any district this cycle.

With an unfriendly district map, New Jersey Republicans will have to make the most of their opportunities.

— Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot on NRO.