How Do America’s Enemies Think About the Iran War?

The conflict’s ambiguous end is likely to encourage miscalculations.

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From left: Chinese President Xi Jinping, President Donald Trump, and Russian President Vladimir Putin

Tingshu Wang, Kylie Cooper, Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Reuters

The president clearly hopes that his memorandum of understanding with the Islamic Republic will put the Iran war in the rearview mirror. It might, although it is by no means a given that Tehran, emboldened by America’s retreat, will refrain from testing Donald Trump’s commitment to pusillanimity.

For now, however, the conflict has cooled to the point that there is space to thoroughly evaluate the war, the “cease-fire,” the peace (such as it is), and how it all reflects on America’s tactical capabilities and strategic thinking. The United States won’t be the only nation conducting after-action assessments. America’s adversaries abroad will draw their own lessons from the war.

Noah Rothman

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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