One month into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the outcome of the war remains unclear, and any number of scenarios are possible. However, the scenario for which Russia planned — a quick and thorough political subjugation — is not achievable, because of the tenacity of the Ukrainian resistance and the support flowing to the Ukrainian government from so many countries.
It is still possible that Russia “succeeds,” but painfully and slowly. And it is possible that Ukraine’s current counteroffensives could repulse the Russian incursion into much of the country. It is possible, too, that Vladimir Putin could escalate the war both inside and outside of Ukraine in a desperate attempt to achieve a better outcome or stronger position. A peace deal or armistice, perhaps like that in Korea in 1953, is likely, and it could take many different forms. But it looks difficult for even an exhausted Ukraine to accept any peace deal that might reward Russia’s naked and indiscriminate aggression.
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