No political majority is permanent; some are built on stronger ground than others, but keeping a majority eventually requires shaking off complacency and getting to work. Ever since George W. Bush, Rick Perry, and Karl Rove turned Texas into a Republican stronghold in the 1990s, culminating with flipping the Texas House to Republican control in the 2002 elections for the first time since Reconstruction, there have been two lingering critiques of the state’s dominant Republican majority. The first is turnout: Texas typically has the lowest turnout of eligible voters in the nation. In 2016, for example, national voter turnout was 60.1 percent of all eligible voters; in Texas, it was 51.2 percent. Democrats complained that Texas was not really a Republican state, just a low-turnout state. The other is demographics: With each passing year, Texas becomes more urban and less white. Surely, the doomsayers said, the day will come when all those missing voters will finally show up at the polls and combine with the state’s shifting demographics to turn Texas blue. On that day, the fatal blow will be dealt to the foundation of any national Republican coalition.
In 2018, that day seemed almost ready to arrive, with Ted Cruz winning by just 2.6 points statewide and straight-ticket Democratic voting ousting many Republican incumbents (particularly judges) down the ticket. An August 2019 Politico headline warned, “Texas Republicans brace for 2020 drubbing.” In 2020, Democrats spent over $55 million in Texas, and turnout surged, topping 60 percent of all eligible voters for the first time this century. More than 11 million Texans voted in 2020, up from 6.4 million in 2000, 8 million in 2012, and just under 9 million in 2016. Would this be the day of reckoning?
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