How the Israel-Iran War Could End

With the U.S. strike on the Iranian nuclear sites, it is surely time to think about how the war with Iran might end.

President Trump has asked for “unconditional surrender,” following a president he has not before used as a model: Franklin D. Roosevelt. Continuing and expanded Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear, military, police, and government sites might not convince Iran’s “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to seek a way out. Israeli attacks on petroleum-related targets might; a future without exporting oil could lead Khamenei to fear an economic collapse that could lead to widespread public unrest. No one knows better than he how restive and how tired of this regime the population is. And neither he nor anyone else knows what combination of heightened public opposition and weakened government institutions could light the spark of its undoing.

About the Author

Elliott Abrams

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and served in the Reagan, George W. Bush, and Trump administrations.

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With the U.S. strike on the Iranian nuclear sites, it is surely time to think about how the war with Iran might end.

President Trump has asked for “unconditional surrender,” following a president he has not before used as a model: Franklin D. Roosevelt. Continuing and expanded Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear, military, police, and government sites might not convince Iran’s “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to seek a way out. Israeli attacks on petroleum-related targets might; a future without exporting oil could lead Khamenei to fear an economic collapse that could lead to widespread public unrest. No one knows better than he how restive and how tired of this regime the population is. And neither he nor anyone else knows what combination of heightened public opposition and weakened government institutions could light the spark of its undoing.

About the Author

Elliott Abrams

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and served in the Reagan, George W. Bush, and Trump administrations.