Vladimir Putin’s strikes across Ukraine have dominated international attention in recent days. Whether they were intended to respond to the Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge or were planned earlier, they demonstrate the maintenance of Russian will and the limits of Russian power. Weapons deliveries, particularly air defenses, will reduce the threat that Russian missiles pose to Ukrainian critical infrastructure and population centers.
Nevertheless, there is an additional threat — that of Belarusian intervention in the war. Although the Belarusian armed forces are relatively weak, active Belarusian participation would increase the danger of Russia–NATO escalation, further commit Russia to a broader war, and, most critically, give Russia an additional pool of manpower from which to draw. The West should treat the Belarusian question seriously: The terms of the limited war ought to be revised, Russia denied a crucial ally in theater, and the Kremlin put on notice that escalation brings certain consequences.
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