Trump Is Misreading Russia on Ukraine War

Back when the president and his officials were searching for a rationalization to frame the Ukraine mineral rights deal as something more than grubby extortion, one that stuck was the notion that Moscow would be intimidated by U.S. presence inside Ukraine.

“The American presence will, I think, keep a lot of bad actors out of the country or certainly out of the area where we’re doing the digging,” Trump said during an April cabinet meeting. That was a dubious claim at the time. It’s downright preposterous now.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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Back when the president and his officials were searching for a rationalization to frame the Ukraine mineral rights deal as something more than grubby extortion, one that stuck was the notion that Moscow would be intimidated by U.S. presence inside Ukraine.

“The American presence will, I think, keep a lot of bad actors out of the country or certainly out of the area where we’re doing the digging,” Trump said during an April cabinet meeting. That was a dubious claim at the time. It’s downright preposterous now.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.