Iran’s Attack on Israel Was a Political Sea Change

Casual observers could be forgiven for thinking that the massive attack on Israel that the Iranian regime unleashed on April 13 changed nothing. The first direct attack on Israel by the Iranian military occasioned no mass gatherings in the West. It inaugurated no wider war in the Middle East. Israel’s calibrated reprisal, which the New York Times alleges was originally set to be “much broader in scope,” seems to have nevertheless achieved its desired deterrent effect through the selective application of advanced weapons systems capable of evading Iran’s Russian-made air defenses. Perhaps Iran’s attack wasn’t much of a sea-change after all.

That may be a defensible interpretation of recent events, but it is wrong, nonetheless.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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Casual observers could be forgiven for thinking that the massive attack on Israel that the Iranian regime unleashed on April 13 changed nothing. The first direct attack on Israel by the Iranian military occasioned no mass gatherings in the West. It inaugurated no wider war in the Middle East. Israel’s calibrated reprisal, which the New York Times alleges was originally set to be “much broader in scope,” seems to have nevertheless achieved its desired deterrent effect through the selective application of advanced weapons systems capable of evading Iran’s Russian-made air defenses. Perhaps Iran’s attack wasn’t much of a sea-change after all.

That may be a defensible interpretation of recent events, but it is wrong, nonetheless.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.