Pundits and political observers are struggling to come up with new ways to say, “it’s tied.” No one who isn’t auditioning for a role in a future White House will tell you anything different. But with just two weeks before the vote, we can safely compare the two campaigns’ strategic advantages and the tactics they are employing to secure them. Squint for long enough at that side-by-side comparison, and you’re more likely to come away from it with the impression that Donald Trump has the upper hand.
First, there are the polls. High-quality national and state-level surveys are all telling the same story: The race is so close that any change in one direction or the other can be sufficiently explained by sampling or methodological distinctions as much as actual movement among voters. That said, there has been a small but consistent shift toward Trump in the aggregate. If the former president has momentum, it’s coming at precisely the right time for his campaign.
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