Is the Intelligence on Iran’s Capabilities Credible?

We now have a better understanding of why Project Freedom, a Trump administration initiative in the Strait of Hormuz designed to neutralize the Iranian threat and get maritime traffic moving again, was abruptly aborted within 36 hours of its announcement. The reason? The Saudis wanted to teach the White House a lesson, and so reportedly imposed temporary restraints on the U.S.

To recap: Over the weekend, following a prolonged period of relative quiet, commercial shipping in the strait once again came under Iranian fire. Within hours, the administration announced its intention to clear navigable channels in the strait. To demonstrate U.S. resolve, two cruise-missile destroyers transited the waterway, drawing Iranian fire in the process. But, as they had during Operation Epic Fury, Iran’s field commanders also lashed out omnidirectionally, launching missiles and drones at targets inside Gulf states like Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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We now have a better understanding of why Project Freedom, a Trump administration initiative in the Strait of Hormuz designed to neutralize the Iranian threat and get maritime traffic moving again, was abruptly aborted within 36 hours of its announcement. The reason? The Saudis wanted to teach the White House a lesson, and so reportedly imposed temporary restraints on the U.S.

To recap: Over the weekend, following a prolonged period of relative quiet, commercial shipping in the strait once again came under Iranian fire. Within hours, the administration announced its intention to clear navigable channels in the strait. To demonstrate U.S. resolve, two cruise-missile destroyers transited the waterway, drawing Iranian fire in the process. But, as they had during Operation Epic Fury, Iran’s field commanders also lashed out omnidirectionally, launching missiles and drones at targets inside Gulf states like Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.