When Jeb Bush’s first television ad of the primary season hits the airwaves tomorrow, it won’t play in Iowa, but in New Hampshire.
The ad is intended to remind Granite Staters of Bush’s conservative record as Florida governor. It includes an implicit shot at Donald Trump, who has tangled with Bush in recent weeks as he continues to lead the polls. “If you want more DC politicians or more self-promoters, you’ve got options,” Bush says in the ad, which is backed by $500,000. “I’m offering something different: leadership, ideas and a proven conservative record. As governor, I cut taxes, cut spending, [and] balanced budgets, and Florida led the nation in job creation. Anybody can talk. I’ve delivered, and I hope to earn your support.”
The Bush team’s decision to run its first ad in New Hampshire suggests it prioritizes that state over the Iowa caucuses, despite its extensive organizational presence and numerous campaign stops in Iowa. It also speaks to how the primary terrain has shifted from previous cycles, forcing Bush to try to chart John McCain’s 2008 path to victory rather than employing the strategy that propelled George W. Bush to the nomination in 2000.
“I’m going to campaign hard here,” Bush told reporters in Iowa earlier this year. “It’s my intention to win. Period. I’m a competitive person, my hope is to win any place where I’m competing.”
#share#Recent polling shows a strong appetite for outsider candidates among Iowa Republicans. Trump leads the field with 29 percent support in the Hawkeye State, while acclaimed brain surgeon Ben Carson is in second with 22 percent, according to the most recent NBC/Marist survey. Bush is in third with 6 percent of the vote. Senator Ted Cruz (R., Texas) and Governor Scott Walker (R., Wis.) have 4 and 5 percent support, respectively. Trump also leads in New Hampshire, 20 points ahead of Bush, who is in third there at 8 percent.
— Joel Gehrke is a political reporter for National Review.
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