How Jerry Moran Opened Himself to a Primary Challenge from the Right

This wasn’t supposed to happen to Jerry Moran.

In fall of 2014, when Kansas senator Pat Roberts was fighting for his political life against an unexpectedly potent challenge from an independent candidate, Republicans liked to hold up Moran, the state’s junior senator, as the model of how Roberts should have been preparing for reelection. Roberts was being attacked for living in Virginia and never coming back to the state he represents. Moran, on the other hand, is home every weekend. In October 2014, he showed up to an event for Roberts on his own, with no staff, having driven there in his pick-up truck.

Moran seemed set to cruise to reelection this fall without any serious trouble. There was some early huffing and puffing from Representative Tim Huelskamp about a primary challenge, but it did not last long. Moran looked as if he was home free. And then, suddenly, he wasn’t.

On Monday, Representative Mike Pompeo’s chief of staff declined to rule out the possibility that his boss would challenge Moran in the primary. Tuesday, on the Hugh Hewitt show, Pompeo himself declined to rule it out, saying he would make a decision within the week. The remarks followed comments from Moran suggesting he supported hearings for Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s nominee to the Supreme Court, which would put him at odds with all but a few of his Republican colleagues.

Republicans often describe Moran as “risk averse.” He rarely takes stances on controversial issues and tends to stay away from the hottest debates of the day. That reputation made his comments on Garland all the more conspicuous, and they predictably incited an instant firestorm. Moran walked back his stance later in the week, saying he did not need hearings to know that Garland was an insufficiently conservative nominee. But the damage was done. Pompeo released a blistering statement, attacking Moran for his “tardy conversion” and saying he was “concerned” by the senator’s comments.

Kansas Republicans have long believed Pompeo was positioning himself to run for governor in 2018, or possibly for Roberts’s senate seat in 2020. So some are baffled by his comments and unsure just how seriously to take his sudden interest in challenging Moran. Such a challenge could be risky: If Pompeo were to lose the primary, he would be out of political office and at a serious disadvantage in what is expected to be a crowded governor’s race two years from now. (Noting that Pompeo also publicly considered a bid for speaker of the House last year, several state Republicans suggest to National Review that he may simply be trying to raise his profile in preparation for that race.)

Some Kansas Republicans are skeptical that Pompeo could build an operation strong enough to challenge Moran with just four months until the August 6 primary. The senator has been preparing for a challenge for the past year. His campaign deployed people to help run Kansas’ caucuses last month and helped make cards to collect names of Republicans interested in volunteering either for the party or for his campaign. Moran closed the year with $3.1 million cash on hand. Pompeo finished with $1.1 million.

But if Pompeo did decide to run, he might have some powerful allies to help him make up that funding gap. The Club for Growth has been a major backer of his in past races, and it is clearly open to helping him again. “Mike Pompeo has been rock solid on the Club’s issues and has a lifetime 93 score, while Jerry Moran has always been lukewarm on pro-growth issues and has a lifetime score of 73. So, it could be quite an upgrade,” says communications director Doug Sachtleben. Asked if Pompeo had spoken to the Club about a possible bid, Sachtleben declined to comment.

In 2014, when Pompeo had a primary challenge from former representative Todd Tiahrt, David Koch gave the maximum donation to his campaign, and Americans for Prosperity, an arm of the Koch network, ran ads for him. Moran, meanwhile, bucked the Kochs when he backed reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank last year. James Davis, a spokesman for Freedom Partners, another Koch group, declined to comment on a potential Pompeo-Moran primary.

One Kansas Republican said there had been polling calls last week asking whom respondents would vote for between Moran, Pompeo, and Milton Wolf, a doctor who challenged Roberts last cycle. A local politics blog, Kansas GOP Insider, reported on the poll, but it is unclear who was conducting it.

Moran remains popular across Kansas, and before he won his Senate seat, he represented the state’s first congressional district. Known as the Big First, it is the largest district in Kansas, very rural, and home to a large number of conservatives, making it crucial for any Republican seeking statewide office. For that reason, recent Kansas senators have often come from that district, including Roberts and Bob Dole. Pompeo, on the other hand, represents Wichita, and he would probably have to boost his name-identification in the other parts of the state.

As an incumbent, Moran would have the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. NRSC chairman Roger Wicker, in comments to the Wall Street Journal Wednesday, urged Pompeo not to run. Moran served as chairman of the NRSC last cycle, a fact that could come into play if Pompeo runs to his right: Some conservatives remain miffed about the committee’s decision to aggressively back incumbent senators over conservative challengers in 2014.

Pompeo’s camp declined to comment when reached by NR, but Moran says the two men have not spoken about the possible primary matchup.

“I wouldn’t expect him to run against me without the courtesy of a conversation,” he writes in a statement provided to NRO. “But regardless, I go home every weekend to hear directly from Kansans and lead the fight on Capitol Hill to advance our state’s common-sense, conservative values and interests. My campaign has built a strong coalition of grassroots supporters, and we are working hard to highlight my commitment to serving Kansans and my proven track record as a United States Senator.”

— Alexis Levinson is the senior political reporter for National Review.