Forget about asking Santa Claus. Members of Congress already can guess what they’re getting for Christmas: a nice, long working holiday in Washington, D.C. — at least if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid gets his way. According the U.S. Senate website, the “tentative schedule” (italics theirs) for the remainder of the legislative year is one big “T.B.D.” Like parents scrambling for Tickle Me Elmos a decade or so ago, the White House and Reid are currently jostling senators for votes in support of Obamacare, with the hope of passing a health-care bill before the winter recess. Time, however, is not on their side. Take one glance at the Senate calendar, and it’s clear that early spring, not the Yuletide season, is when President Obama should actually expect this lump of coal to arrive on his desk (if it arrives at all). Here’s why. 1. Veterans’ affairs. The Senate has been off since Tuesday afternoon, thanks to the Veterans Day recess. It will reconvene on Monday. Reid wants to get moving on health care, but the Senate doesn’t like to rush, especially when it comes to vets. According to senior aides, the Senate will be busy with its consideration of H.R. 3082, which appropriates funds to military construction projects and the Department of Veterans Affairs, until at least Tuesday. Sen. Tom Coburn (R., Okla.) is already preparing to offer two related amendments for Monday night. So there goes early next week. 2. Judicial nominees. Just before wrapping up Senate business on Tuesday, Reid filed a cloture motion to end debate on the nomination of Judge David Hamilton to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. That cloture vote won’t happen until at least 2:15 p.m. Tuesday, meaning the final vote will probably be as late as Wednesday evening. And, according to the Senate’s executive calendar, many other nominations are also due for consideration. So forget about Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. The (lack of a) bill. If Reid is able to patch together a health-care bill behind the scenes and put it online for at least 72 hours, he can set up a vote on a “motion to proceed” to the House bill, which he could use as a stand-in for his own for the time being. Reid has indicated that he hopes to do this, but it’s far from certain that he’ll be able to. And even if all the stars align, aides say, the vote on whether to proceed would come at the end of next week at the earliest. Reid spokesman Jim Manley says that Reid might file a motion to proceed as soon as Tuesday, November 17. Still, Reid and other senators are said to be not very enthusiastic about the House bill. Whether they will be willing to use it as a shell in order to move debate forward next week is unknown. 4. The CBO. Reid has told Democratic senators that he will not bring a health-care bill to the floor without a formal cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office. As Roll Call reports: “The CBO score is expected by the end of this week, but once Reid sees the estimate, he may seek tweaks to the bill that could delay the final score.” Democrats such as Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana have indicated that they won’t vote on a bill unless they know the costs. If Reid senses that on-the-fence Democrats are leery of offering up a “yea” vote due to cost worries, then he could postpone debate and wait until better CBO numbers emerged on a future draft of legislation. 5. Thanksgiving recess. Reid has promised senators that he will not make them stay in Washington for the upcoming Thanksgiving recess. After working Friday, November 20, the Senate won’t come back to work until Monday, November 30. That’s a long time for senators to be back in their home states and hearing from constituents. They’ll be hearing a lot of grumbles as they stroll along turkey-day parades. If Reid can’t force something next week, November will be gone, not with a bang, but a whimper. 6. That holiday craze. Now we’re into December. Even if Reid invoked cloture on the motion to proceed before Thanksgiving, there are only three weeks before Christmas to consider the bill. That’s not enough time — the debate will almost surely slip into next year, or Reid will try to file cloture on it before it’s finished. To make sure debate keeps moving, Reid can use a tactic that Senate aides call “filling the tree” — building up the schedule with his own amendments to crowd out others that he finds pesky. By then, the Senate will be in a full holiday craze, with the White House pressuring Reid to make deals and senators trying to avoid voting before all of their concerns are fleshed out. 7. A GOP filibuster. If Reid keeps pushing for a vote, Republicans are prepared to filibuster. Even Democrats are willing to join in. “Faced with a decision about whether or not to move a bill that is bad, I won’t vote to move it,” Sen. Ben Nelson (D., Neb.) tells ABC News. So, the filibuster process could take up many days and long nights of debate. Reid will need all 60 Democrats to stop a GOP filibuster on the motion to proceed. If he doesn’t get 60, he could still opt for “reconciliation,” which would allow him to pass a bill with a simple majority of 51 votes. Such a move would be risky. Republicans could slam Reid for moving too quickly, and public support could easily diminish. 8. The deficit. A couple Senate aides say that one issue that could eat up time in December is the federal deficit. “We’re reaching our debt limit,” they say, “and it takes an act of Congress to raise the debt ceiling.” A new Treasury Department report issued Thursday shows that the deficit for October alone was $176 billion and the overall federal debt could soon hit $12 trillion. This could haunt Obamacare if debate drags on after Thanksgiving. While Reid tries to focus everyone on health care, Republicans may start talking up the debt. Such a debate, one aide says, could cripple enthusiasm for Obamacare. Should the health-care debate become muddied by other issues, look for Reid to make his colleagues work on weekends. Saturdays December 5, 12, and 19 have already been marked in as possible work days. Bear in mind, however, that the Senate rarely even works on Fridays. 9. The House-Senate conference. Should some health-care bill pass the Senate before the winter recess, it will still have to go to a House-Senate conference before ending up on the president’s desk. This conference period will undoubtedly stretch on for weeks as both chambers hammer out details. Rep. Steny Hoyer (D., Md.), the House majority leader, has said that the House could be in session until Christmas Eve to try and win final passage. Don’t expect Hoyer’s holiday wish to come true. Health-care bills don’t come nicely wrapped or in sleighs. 10. The Snowe factor. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R., Maine), who’s being courted by both parties for her vote, tells NRO that she’s fine with the debate going into 2010. “We’re trying to sort this through and make it a better bill,” says Snowe. “It’s going to be a lengthy debate. There’s not going to be any way of short-circuiting the process when it comes to analyzing all of the amendments that are going to be offered. That’s the nature of this issue, as it should be. It requires a considerable amount of time. We need to give this the time it deserves. That’s what the Founding Fathers wanted, that’s what the Senate’s all about: having a very deliberative process.” Some moderate Democrats feel the same way. So buy that eggnog and reindeer sweater at the Capitol gift shop, senators. It looks like this health-care debate could make the holidays one long legislative season. No one seems to be rushing to get the president the gift at the top of his list. – Robert Costa is the William F. Buckley Jr. Fellow at the National Review Institute.