As with the Senate races, and using the same metrics and sources in the RealClearPolitics poll averages, I’m tracking the races for governor. Unlike in the Senate, each of these races matters a lot locally, but they don’t add up to something larger when combined. Something strange has happened with the polling: With the conspicuous exception of the hotly fought race for governor of Georgia, the outcomes of most of these races are now pretty clear, barring a major polling error or late surprise. But from the four very closest races, as measured by last month’s polls, we have had no further polling in the past four weeks. We’re in the dark.
It may look as if there are a bunch of races still to be decided. Given historic polling trends, it remains possible that ’s voters are being undercounted, but otherwise, the races in Ohio, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Maine, and Arizona look effectively over, to say nothing of Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, and Alaska. Let’s look at the big board, which now includes new polling on South Dakota and Alabama as well as a fresher poll that puts Arkansas out of reach, where most of us assumed it was already:
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