Latent violence is pretty much everywhere in the world in these days of recession. Britain and France have already seen strikes aimed at protecting local jobs, and both their governments have been lucky so far to escape an escalating crisis. But the more eastward you go in Europe the closer this violence comes to the surface. In Latvia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria the various police forces have been very rough. Roughest of all, though, is Russia, where the authorities very well know where protest might lead, and so have never taken kindly to it. When in doubt, use the knout. Its riot police have been handily beating demonstrators to the ground everywhere from St Petersburg to Vladivostok.

Unemployment in Russia is rising fast, and the currency, the ruble, has lost about a fifth of its value. $200 billion–a third of the reserves–have already been spent supporting the ruble, so that further devaluation seems a virtual certainty Foreign investors have withdrawn billions of dollars.

All of which encourages the Kremlin to go on the attack in classic style. We already know how Putin and company treat Georgia. Now they are in the process of reestablishing their hold on the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. The Kremlin plans to form a force in the region, and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev specifically declares that it will be a match for NATO.

To get off the mark, Russia has ensnared Kirghizstan with the usual blend of violence, cunning and bribery. In recent weeks, Russia began by attacking the Kirghiz internet infrastructure. Then it simply bought the country with a multi-billion dollar loan to plug the deficit in the Kirghiz budget, with additional hundreds of millions of dollars in write-offs and grants. More than that, according to the Daily Telegraph, what are delicately called “bonuses” and “emoluments” were paid to officials. The money may be running out in Moscow, and the currency about to crash, but power still remains power.

As part of this murky business, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the Kirghiz president, has ordered the United States to quit the former Soviet base it rented at Manas, close to the country’s capital of Bishkek. Manas is needed to ferry supplies to American and other forces over the border in Afghanistan, and squadrons of fighter jets are also stationed there. President Obama has been promising increased operations against Afghan Islamists, but the closing of Manas will seriously impede any such development. And simultaneously there are to be renewed arms’ control negotiations, aimed at reducing nuclear stockpiles to achieve parity–that is to say, boosting Russia at American expense.

When the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan back in 1979 and began that poor country’s destruction, then President Jimmy Carter feebly lamented that he’d just learned what he was up against. Obama looks like having his Carter moment.