China Pursuing Taiwan ‘Unification’ in Incremental Process

When Americans imagine China’s unification with Taiwan, they usually imagine an event: a morning when missiles fly, Chinese troops cross the Taiwan Strait, and the United States and Japan must decide whether to intervene. Much analysis therefore revolves around dates — 2027, 2035, even 2049, and whether the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will possess the capability to conquer Taiwan by then. This way of thinking produces a static, binary framework: Taiwan is either unified with China, or it is not.

But while strategists debate when China might cross that line, Beijing appears increasingly interested in erasing the line itself. Its strategy is evolving from achieving unification at a particular moment to achieving it incrementally. Unification, in this conception, is not merely a future event. It is a dynamic process.

About the Author

Jianli Yang

Jianli Yang is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Center for the National Interest and a columnist for National Review.

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When Americans imagine China’s unification with Taiwan, they usually imagine an event: a morning when missiles fly, Chinese troops cross the Taiwan Strait, and the United States and Japan must decide whether to intervene. Much analysis therefore revolves around dates — 2027, 2035, even 2049, and whether the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will possess the capability to conquer Taiwan by then. This way of thinking produces a static, binary framework: Taiwan is either unified with China, or it is not.

But while strategists debate when China might cross that line, Beijing appears increasingly interested in erasing the line itself. Its strategy is evolving from achieving unification at a particular moment to achieving it incrementally. Unification, in this conception, is not merely a future event. It is a dynamic process.