In 2008, Ron Paul finished fifth in New Hampshire. This year, he’s poised to be in the top three.

While Paul’s Iowa surge is getting ample attention, less noticed is his steady rise in New Hampshire polls. At the beginning of November, Paul was in third place, and he remains there. But his support has grown from an average of 11 percent to 17 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.

“Paul’s going to get 20 percent here up here,” predicts New Hampshire Republican strategist Rich Killion.

Pat Griffin, a longtime strategist and senior fellow at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm’s College, is less bullish about Paul’s chances, but agrees he’s being underestimated. “He’s going to do better than expected, but I don’t believe that means a win here,” Griffin says. “It might be a second place; it might be a show. It’s very clear that he’s in the hunt.”

Paul has been on the air with TV ads in New Hampshire since September. That’s not his only concession to traditional campaigning mores this cycle: He’s also built up a more extensive organization and is working to appeal to voters who weren’t attracted by his economics-centered pitch the last time around. “They’re spending money like they haven’t spent before up here. They’ve been on the air consistently,” Killion observes.

Killion received a six-page direct-mail piece from the Paul campaign that touted the former ob/gyn’s long-held pro-life views and experience as a doctor. In addition to reaching out to pro-life voters, Paul’s campaign has also made a TV ad aimed at veterans that is airing in New Hampshire. “In 2008, Ron Paul was liberty, liberty, liberty and the Constitution, and would just draw the line on that, and maybe bash the Fed. This time around, they’re really carving out a coalition up here,” Killion comments.

Another factor that helps Paul on primary day: the dedication of his supporters. “They’re serious about this. In terms of organization on the ground, Ron Paul’s people will turn out the vote here in New Hampshire,” observes Griffin.

But generally, Granite State politicos view Paul as up against a hard ceiling in terms of potential support. “It is difficult for him to break through to the casual political observer,” says Travis Blais, the Windham, N.H., GOP chair. “He might be rising in rankings in the polls, but I don’t know if in New Hampshire, he’d ever bust out and have 45 percent all of a sudden.”

Pointing to Herman Cain’s decision to exit the race and Rick Perry’s and Michele Bachmann’s drops in the polls, Blais attributes Paul’s rise to a narrowing field of conservative contenders. “Ron Paul is standing out more, just because his conservative competition has sort of receded,” Blais says. “But really, he starts talking about Iranian nukes, and your average GOP primary voter starts getting really uncomfortable with the idea of him being president.”

Jamie Burnett, a New Hampshire GOP strategist who thinks Paul is a “stronger candidate” than he was the previous cycle, predicts that he will be in the 10 to 14 percent range in the state when the votes are tallied. “I don’t think there are enough Ron Paul supporters or people that are likely Ron Paul supporters to put him over the top or even get him into second place,” Burnett remarks.

While Paul may be the frontrunner in Iowa, Griffin sees “more of a ceiling” for him in New Hampshire, and doubts that an Iowa win could help him pull off a second unexpected victory, in the Granite State. “New Hampshire often contradicts what Iowa does,” Griffin says.

— Katrina Trinko is an NRO reporter.