Pennsylvania Supreme Court Retention Election a Key Swing-State Test

You might think that the 2025 elections are mostly being fought on blue turf outside of the true swing states. The gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey are being contested in states Donald Trump lost three times, although Virginia currently has a Republican governor and five Republicans among its eleven house members, and Democrats hold a one-seat majority in each of its two legislative chambers. The mayoral race in New York is in deepest-blue territory. But there’s a big election (really, three of them) this year in the largest and most critical swing state of them all: Pennsylvania. And Democrats have been putting in a lot more effort than Republicans have.

There’s no doubting the pivotal nature of Pennsylvania, or its symbolic importance to Donald Trump, especially after he survived an assassination attempt in Butler and worked a McDonald’s drive-thru in Bucks County. Writers such as Salena Zito have made Pennsylvania an emblem for Trump’s capacity to shatter the “blue wall” of Rust Belt states that the Democrats held at the presidential level from 1992 through 2012. In 2016, 2020, and 2024, it was on the list of three or four closest states won by the presidential victor within the margin that decided the Electoral College. Its senators are, first, an idiosyncratic maverick pro-Israel progressive Democrat, John Fetterman, elected in 2022, and, second, a Bush Republican turned MAGA-friendly Republican, Dave McCormick, elected in 2024. Its Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, has made his own cautious nods toward moderation on a few issues while trying to position himself as a presidential contender. The Keystone State has ten Republicans among its 17 house members, a 27–23 Republican state senate, and a 102–101 Democratic state house. In late March, Democrats narrowly flipped a Republican-held senate seat and easily retained a Democratic-held house seat to hold onto their one-seat majority.

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Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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You might think that the 2025 elections are mostly being fought on blue turf outside of the true swing states. The gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey are being contested in states Donald Trump lost three times, although Virginia currently has a Republican governor and five Republicans among its eleven house members, and Democrats hold a one-seat majority in each of its two legislative chambers. The mayoral race in New York is in deepest-blue territory. But there’s a big election (really, three of them) this year in the largest and most critical swing state of them all: Pennsylvania. And Democrats have been putting in a lot more effort than Republicans have.

There’s no doubting the pivotal nature of Pennsylvania, or its symbolic importance to Donald Trump, especially after he survived an assassination attempt in Butler and worked a McDonald’s drive-thru in Bucks County. Writers such as Salena Zito have made Pennsylvania an emblem for Trump’s capacity to shatter the “blue wall” of Rust Belt states that the Democrats held at the presidential level from 1992 through 2012. In 2016, 2020, and 2024, it was on the list of three or four closest states won by the presidential victor within the margin that decided the Electoral College. Its senators are, first, an idiosyncratic maverick pro-Israel progressive Democrat, John Fetterman, elected in 2022, and, second, a Bush Republican turned MAGA-friendly Republican, Dave McCormick, elected in 2024. Its Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, has made his own cautious nods toward moderation on a few issues while trying to position himself as a presidential contender. The Keystone State has ten Republicans among its 17 house members, a 27–23 Republican state senate, and a 102–101 Democratic state house. In late March, Democrats narrowly flipped a Republican-held senate seat and easily retained a Democratic-held house seat to hold onto their one-seat majority.