The volatile nature of 2020 — in which a pandemic and civil unrest have already rendered even the presidential impeachment a distant memory — makes it impossible to predict much about the November election with certainty. We know that Donald Trump is in trouble: Joe Biden has built a strong position in the polls, and the booming economy that was supposed to be the centerpiece of Trump’s reelection campaign is now a distant memory. But we’re still months from knowing how much that really tells us about the fall.
This much is certain: Against Biden’s early lead, Trump has the advantage of incumbency. He can raise gobs of money and dominate the news. He can take official actions, while Biden can only make speeches. The last three presidents have been reelected, each after a lot of premature obituaries were written for his reelection prospects. Americans haven’t thrown a sitting president out of office in 28 years, and only once in the past 120 years (in 1976 and 1980) have American voters changed party control of the White House in two consecutive elections.
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