Presidential Reelection: Cliffhangers Are Rare

Will Donald Trump’s reelection campaign be a nail-biter? No Republican president has ever been reelected with less than 50 percent of the vote. Historically, when a president runs for reelection, it usually isn’t close. Of the 31 times in U.S. history that a sitting president ran for reelection, 19 of those were blowouts: 15 easy wins, 4 lopsided losses. Among the other 12, nearly half offered very little real suspense at the end. Let’s rank the twelve closest presidential reelection races in American history to see how few of them were really that close.

Woodrow Wilson was the first of three presidents (all Democrats) reelected with less than 50 percent of the national popular vote. Wilson’s electoral-vote margin over Republican Charles Evans Hughes was, in percentage terms, the closest victory ever by (or against) an incumbent. Wilson expanded his share of the overall popular vote from 1912 but fell off from 435 electoral votes to 277, the steepest drop ever by an incumbent who succeeded in winning reelection.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

Will Donald Trump’s reelection campaign be a nail-biter? No Republican president has ever been reelected with less than 50 percent of the vote. Historically, when a president runs for reelection, it usually isn’t close. Of the 31 times in U.S. history that a sitting president ran for reelection, 19 of those were blowouts: 15 easy wins, 4 lopsided losses. Among the other 12, nearly half offered very little real suspense at the end. Let’s rank the twelve closest presidential reelection races in American history to see how few of them were really that close.

Woodrow Wilson was the first of three presidents (all Democrats) reelected with less than 50 percent of the national popular vote. Wilson’s electoral-vote margin over Republican Charles Evans Hughes was, in percentage terms, the closest victory ever by (or against) an incumbent. Wilson expanded his share of the overall popular vote from 1912 but fell off from 435 electoral votes to 277, the steepest drop ever by an incumbent who succeeded in winning reelection.