Pretending Away Democrats’ Extremism Problems

Every sign we have says that political disaster looms for Democrats this fall. Joe Biden, at this writing, has a 41.3 percent approval rating and 53.8 disapproval in the RealClearPolitics poll average, and Republicans have a 3.6 point lead in the generic ballot. Henry Olsen warns that a 40-seat loss in the House could be on the table in spite of Democratic gerrymanders. In states holding elections in 2021, Olsen writes, “public opinion shifted 12.5 points in one year. Lo and behold, Democrats lost every state legislative seat in those states that Biden carried by 11.75 points or less and a couple of additional seats above that line . . . [Democrats] hold 42 House seats that fall below that mark, and a few more will be added to the list when New Hampshire and Florida draw their maps.” David Siders in Politico warns that an eleven-point enthusiasm gap between Republican and Democratic voters in the fall of 2021 has now swelled to 17 points: “The last time the enthusiasm gap was this wide, in 2010, Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House.”

It doesn’t end here: Democratic analyst David Shor’s latest model shows that “unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party’s coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a filibuster-proof trifecta” — 60 Republican Senate seats. Ruy Teixeira warns that Nevada, a Democratic stronghold in recent years with Senate elections in 2022 and 2024, is “a state where the Democrats’ Hispanic voter and working class voter problems could combine for a disastrous outcome. . . . Among working class Hispanics in the state, Biden is actually underwater, with disapproval of his performance exceeding approval.”

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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Every sign we have says that political disaster looms for Democrats this fall. Joe Biden, at this writing, has a 41.3 percent approval rating and 53.8 disapproval in the RealClearPolitics poll average, and Republicans have a 3.6 point lead in the generic ballot. Henry Olsen warns that a 40-seat loss in the House could be on the table in spite of Democratic gerrymanders. In states holding elections in 2021, Olsen writes, “public opinion shifted 12.5 points in one year. Lo and behold, Democrats lost every state legislative seat in those states that Biden carried by 11.75 points or less and a couple of additional seats above that line . . . [Democrats] hold 42 House seats that fall below that mark, and a few more will be added to the list when New Hampshire and Florida draw their maps.” David Siders in Politico warns that an eleven-point enthusiasm gap between Republican and Democratic voters in the fall of 2021 has now swelled to 17 points: “The last time the enthusiasm gap was this wide, in 2010, Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House.”

It doesn’t end here: Democratic analyst David Shor’s latest model shows that “unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party’s coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a filibuster-proof trifecta” — 60 Republican Senate seats. Ruy Teixeira warns that Nevada, a Democratic stronghold in recent years with Senate elections in 2022 and 2024, is “a state where the Democrats’ Hispanic voter and working class voter problems could combine for a disastrous outcome. . . . Among working class Hispanics in the state, Biden is actually underwater, with disapproval of his performance exceeding approval.”