Since their stinging defeat over Proposition 8 in California, supporters of same-sex marriage have seen a string of victories. Three state legislatures have legalized gay marriage, and on the surface it would appear that the effort has some momentum. But a closer look at the politics of New Hampshire — which legalized same-sex marriage two weeks ago — shows that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, the issue might be a boon to Republicans. “If anything I hope [same-sex] marriage is an issue in next year’s election, as it plays to our advantage,” Kevin Smith of Cornerstone Policy Research, a conservative think tank in New Hampshire, tells National Review Online. “We did a lot of polling on this issue statewide and the results were always very consistent. Anywhere from 55 to 65 percent did not support gay marriage.” That the legalization of same-sex marriage in New Hampshire was done by state legislature rather than the voters has created palpable tension in the state between the voters and the Democratic state legislature and governor. “I think they’re probably most mad about not having a say in it,” Smith said. “They’re mad that this was never a campaign issue in the ’08 elections and they’re mad that they never got a chance to vote on it. New Hampshire’s not a referendum state. We could do a non-binding referendum but the only way to get it on the ballot is through a constitutional amendment. It was proposed a couple of times in the Senate to have a non-binding referendum and Democrats in the majority voted against it every time.” Brian Brown of the National Organization for Marriage points out that the legalization of same-sex marriage has upset voters in New Hampshire because there’s a sense that it was the result of an out-of-state campaign. “If you look at the amount of money that was put into New Hampshire to flip that legislature, especially by Tim Gill and other gay multimillionaires, you’re talking millions of dollars,” Brown said, referring to the software entrepreneur who’s funded same-sex-marriage efforts around the country. While, as of now, same-sex marriage supporters have won a major battle, the issue may well turn out to be a boon to the GOP. “The energy coming from people in New Hampshire is really strong,” says Brown. “I think Republicans are going to have success up there.” In fact, in New Hampshire same-sex marriage is already seen as the catalyst for two recent Republican victories. Just as the same-sex-marriage debate in the state was shaping up this spring, Republicans won two special elections — one for the state house and one for the state senate. “They were both Republican districts, but they were two candidates that lost elections in their districts in November 2008. The Senate candidate ended up winning his race 61 to 39 percent. The House member won her seat 62 to 38,” Kevin Smith said. “They’ll both tell you that it was because of gay marriage and that people are incensed by what the legislature did.” Further, says Brian Brown, Democrats in the state seemed to think the issue would work to their advantage: “The other side was saying that this was going to be a referendum, and they lost big.” Looking ahead to next year, same-sex marriage could have a big impact on the gubernatorial race. Gov. John Lynch may seek a fourth two-year term, and — though he’s pronounced himself opposed to same-sex marriage personally — he signed the bill into law. “You have a governor here who on at least four or five occasions came out against gay marriage in the legislature, and they called his bluff on it, sent it to his desk, and he signed it,” Smith says. “It’s a double whammy against him. The voters don’t like gay marriage and he led them to think he was against it.” What’s happening in New Hampshire is a sign that Republicans everywhere should be using same-sex marriage as a campaign issue, says Brown. Of the recent states that have legalized same-sex marriage — Iowa, Maine, and New Hampshire — none has done so through democratic means, and the actions of the courts and legislatures run against public opinion. Polls show that a sizable majority of Iowans oppose same-sex marriage, despite the state supreme court’s ruling in favor of legalization. And Maine has a “People’s Veto” that allows citizens to vote on new laws as a matter of public referendum. Polls in Maine suggest there’s a good chance same-sex marriage in the state will be overturned. Brown notes that, despite the unpopularity of same-sex marriage among voters, an element of the GOP still thinks that using the issue will hurt them at the ballot box. “There are places in the Northeast and elsewhere where Republicans are abandoning this issue in the wake of Proposition 8,” Brown says. “It makes absolutely no sense when someone like [McCain presidential-campaign manager] Steve Schmidt is saying the party needs to abandon its support for traditional marriage. Our biggest victories are coming in places where people stand up on this issue.”