Republicans Are Having a Moment in Deep-Blue New York State

It’s been over 20 years since a Republican won a statewide race in New York and almost 20 years since that Republican, Governor George Pataki, left office. While the last two decades have been rocky at best for the Empire State GOP, recent events — in particular, the results of the 2024 presidential race in the state — show that Republicans have a chance at a comeback in 2026.

While Donald Trump didn’t win the Empire State’s electoral votes in any of his three runs for the White House, his New York numbers were significantly better in 2024, when he won 44 percent of the vote, than in either 2020, when he won 38 percent, or 2016, when he won 37 percent. As a percentage of the 2024 vote, Trump’s increase in vote share was greater in New York than in any other state. Amazingly, Kamala Harris’s 2024 win in New York was narrower than Trump’s wins in Florida, a swing state as recently as 2016, and in Texas, a state Democrats have long believed was ripe for turning blue.

About the Author

Joseph T. Burns

Joseph T. Burns, a partner at the law firm Holtzman Vogel Baran Torchinsky & Josefiak, is a Republican election attorney and political strategist. He lives in Amherst, N.Y.

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It’s been over 20 years since a Republican won a statewide race in New York and almost 20 years since that Republican, Governor George Pataki, left office. While the last two decades have been rocky at best for the Empire State GOP, recent events — in particular, the results of the 2024 presidential race in the state — show that Republicans have a chance at a comeback in 2026.

While Donald Trump didn’t win the Empire State’s electoral votes in any of his three runs for the White House, his New York numbers were significantly better in 2024, when he won 44 percent of the vote, than in either 2020, when he won 38 percent, or 2016, when he won 37 percent. As a percentage of the 2024 vote, Trump’s increase in vote share was greater in New York than in any other state. Amazingly, Kamala Harris’s 2024 win in New York was narrower than Trump’s wins in Florida, a swing state as recently as 2016, and in Texas, a state Democrats have long believed was ripe for turning blue.

About the Author

Joseph T. Burns

Joseph T. Burns, a partner at the law firm Holtzman Vogel Baran Torchinsky & Josefiak, is a Republican election attorney and political strategist. He lives in Amherst, N.Y.