Republican Senate Candidates Should Retake Control, But Barely

Every two years, when I look at the fall polling in Senate races, I use the same basic framework. First, I note that mid-September polls are typically not the last word in these races, which tend to move in a wave direction nationally, either in the direction of reflecting toward the president’s approval rating (in midterm years) or with the presidential race (in presidential years). Second, I look at the RealClearPolitics poll averages with particular attention to how far each candidate is from the magic 50 percent mark and what share of the remaining undecided vote would need to break in the Republican candidate’s direction to get to 50. I typically also flag how robust the data are for each race — how many polls make up each state’s average, and how many of those are relatively recent.

I’ve explained the method and its basis in history before, here.

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Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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Every two years, when I look at the fall polling in Senate races, I use the same basic framework. First, I note that mid-September polls are typically not the last word in these races, which tend to move in a wave direction nationally, either in the direction of reflecting toward the president’s approval rating (in midterm years) or with the presidential race (in presidential years). Second, I look at the RealClearPolitics poll averages with particular attention to how far each candidate is from the magic 50 percent mark and what share of the remaining undecided vote would need to break in the Republican candidate’s direction to get to 50. I typically also flag how robust the data are for each race — how many polls make up each state’s average, and how many of those are relatively recent.

I’ve explained the method and its basis in history before, here.