Today’s South Carolina primary is likely to confirm what was already obvious after Iowa and New Hampshire: Donald Trump has won the Republican presidential primaries. It appears that Nikki Haley may remain in the race for a while as a protest candidate, but a defeat in her home state would confirm that she’s no longer contesting for the nomination. Trump will be the nominee unless death, grave illness, or some other deus ex machina factor intervenes.
What can we learn about the Republican presidential process going forward? Maybe less than some people think; maybe Donald Trump is just unique, and he was running this time as a de facto incumbent. We won’t truly know how to assess how things have changed after Trump until we reach the stage of “after Trump,” which the voters are not ready to do. But we can surely do some reassessment.
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