Express any optimism about GOP chances in an upcoming New Jersey election, and Republicans elsewhere are likely to roll their eyes. They’ve heard it before, they’ll insist; in fact, they’ve heard it almost every year. They were told that George W. Bush was going to take the Garden State in the 2000 presidential election, that Bret Schundler was going to beat Jim McGreevey in the 2001 governor’s race, that Doug Forrester was going to unseat scandal-tainted Sen. Bob Torricelli in 2002, that the 9/11 effect was going to put New Jersey in play in the 2004 presidential race, that Forrester had a good chance to hinder Jon Corzine’s purchase of the governor’s mansion in 2005, that Tom Kean Jr. had a real shot at beating Bob Menendez in the 2006 Senate race, and that Dick Zimmer could give the petrified fossil of Sen. Frank Lautenberg a competitive race last year.

None of those scenarios came to pass. In fact, the Democrats have carried 16 out of the last 18 statewide races in New Jersey. The only Republican to have won statewide since 1990 is Christine Todd Whitman, twice elected governor. So when the Quinnipiac University poll shows incumbent governor Jon Corzine trailing Republican Chris Christie 44 percent to 38 percent, should Republicans get their hopes up? When the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll shows an even more dire outlook for Corzine — 46 percent disapproval and 40 percent approval, trailing Christie 41 percent to 32 percent — is it time to think, finally, that better days are ahead for New Jersey Republicans?

“Yes and no,” answers Ben Dworkin, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “The Republicans have an excellent shot at winning the governor’s race, provided they nominate a moderate, mainstream, traditional New Jersey Republican.”

With the economy in recession, things are tough all over, but New Jersey is among the hardest hit. It is currently suffering from a $7 billion budget shortfall and, according to the Tax Foundation, has had the worst tax burden in the country three years running. The situation makes some locals recall the 1991 anti-tax fury that gave Republicans sweeping gains in the state legislature and prompted the widespread bumper-sticker slogan “Florio-Free in ’93,” opposing then-governor Jim Florio. “My sense is people are angry and frustrated, but it’s not quite passion in the streets,” Dworkin says. “This is not to say Republicans won’t rally and independents won’t vote against Corzine. The biggest issue for Corzine in early polling is that independents are decidedly anti-Corzine right now — that’s a big chunk of folks.” Jeff Bell, a former Senate candidate in the Garden State, says Christie has a shot, even though Bell prefers a more conservative Republican gubernatorial candidate, former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan. But Lonegan has much lower name recognition than Christie, and he is trailing Corzine, 45 percent to 29 percent. (Note that Corzine remains well below 50 percent in most polls; in fact, he doesn’t exceed 46 percent in any poll conducted this cycle.) Dworkin puts Lonegan’s odds at winning the GOP nomination as “a chance, but an outside chance . . . In a primary, the candidate who appeals more to the base always has an opportunity.” Bell notes that northeastern states like Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Vermont, which traditionally go heavily Democratic, have elected GOP governors in past years. “Republicans are the only other choice when the voters decide they want to throw somebody out. Corzine could be reaching that zone; the winner of the nomination has a real shot.” “If it were just a weak economy,” Bell continues, “[Democratic Michigan governor] Jennifer Granholm proves you can survive bad times. But Corzine’s raised taxes, and people get a sense that New Jersey is becoming marginal as an economic enterprise. . . . The state has a weak economy.” Christie is already depicting Corzine’s tenure as a symphony of broken promises: “If you want to know why the voters of New Jersey are cynical and tired, he is the perfect example as to why. He promised to increase the [Homestead Rebate] program 40 percent in four years, and three years later you are proposing to eliminate that program? You are. You are, Governor, the cause of the cynicism of the voters and the people of this state.” That said, no Republican should underestimate the difficulty of beating even a damaged Corzine. He has access to a gargantuan personal fortune and has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to spend almost unimaginable sums in pursuit of political victory. Both of the leading Republican challengers have their flaws. Christie’s record as a U.S. attorney is sterling — 125 convictions or guilty pleas in public corruption cases, and no losses — but his electoral experience consists of one term on the Morris County Board of Freeholders. (Also, after the promising start and disappointing finish of Christie Whitman in the governor’s mansion and her decision to become a leading voice of liberal Republicanism, national conservatives may just be wary of Republicans with “Christie” anywhere in their names.) “He looks like everybody’s Little League coach,” Dworkin says of the hefty Christie. “He’s made a good impression so far — comfortable on the stump. Having said that, it’s going to be a long campaign, and anytime somebody runs statewide for the first time, they make mistakes.” Lonegan’s time at Americans for Prosperity generated his most surprising political success, helping defeat a 2007 Corzine-backed ballot initiative to borrow $450 million for stem-cell research. Despite polling showing the measure to be popular, it was rejected by 53 percent of the voters, with many saying that even if they didn’t have moral objections to stem-cell research, they couldn’t abide more borrowing by the state. But whether the Republican nominee is Lonegan, Christie, or one of the less well-known candidates — State Assemblyman Rick Merkt or Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine — he will have a ready-made platform, slogan, and set of issues. In short, the Republican nominee will get to play the role of Barack Obama, the candidate of change. –Jim Geraghty writes The Campaign Spot at NRO.