Kansas is the first state to vote after Super Tuesday — and it looks likely that Rick Santorum will score another victory here. “My instinct from talking to different party leaders is that Santorum is probably in the lead, probably has the most support,” says Clay Barker, executive director of the Kansas Republican party. On Tuesday, Santorum took Oklahoma, Kansas’s southern neighbor, and the strengths that helped him triumph there should help him in Kansas too.

Todd Tiahrt, a former Kansas congressman who personally supports Santorum, thinks that Santorum holds strong appeal for blue-collar workers in Kansas. “He kind of resonates with working people and the small-business owners because of his talking about strengthening the American economy and American jobs,” Tiahart says. Santorum’s strong pro-life views also play well with those voters.

But Mitt Romney has some strengths of his own in the state. He’s been endorsed by Kansas-native Bob Dole, and perhaps more importantly, by Kansas secretary of state Kris Kobach, the architect of Arizona’s controversial immigration law. “Kris Kobach is very popular in the grassroots Republican network,” says Helen Van Etten, the RNC national committeewoman in the state.

But it’s not clear those endorsements will significantly boost Romney. Tiahrt, who is now the RNC national committeeman in the state, quotes Kobach’s chief of staff as saying that “Romney was not going to come [campaign in Kansas] because the support for Santorum was so strong.”

Newt Gingrich has effectively pulled out of the state, earlier this week canceling his planned campaign stops in order to ramp up his presence in the must-win southern states of Alabama and Mississippi. But while Gingrich himself won’t be present, Winning Our Future — the super PAC supporting Gingrich — spent $180,000 on TV ads that aired earlier this month in the Sunflower State. In contrast, Santorum’s campaign has spent just $8,000 on radio and TV ads in the last few days.

In fact, Santorum and Paul are the only ones campaigning in the state right before Election Day. Santorum, who was in the state Wednesday, returns Friday for two rallies. Paul is in the state Friday and Saturday.

There are 40 bound delegates at stake, a not-insignificant haul. Twenty-five delegates are awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote. The state’s four congressional districts are winner-take-all; whoever wins each district will get all three of its delegates.

About 60,000 people — less than 10 percent of the Republicans in the state — will show for Saturday’s caucuses, estimates Barker. Caucuses tend to draw only the most motivated voters, and Barker thinks that could hurt Romney. “I just don’t know how energized they are to come out,” he says of voters in the Kansas City area, which he thinks would be more likely to support Romney. One reason for that, adds Barker, is “because Romney really hasn’t had a network on the ground like the other three campaigns had for the last month.”

Paul, on the other hand, stands to benefit from the caucus format, thanks to his dedicated supporters. Tiahrt says it’s very possible that Paul could get double-digit support, and doesn’t rule out the possibility of Paul coming in second. “My guess would be yes, that Romney would be second, but I wouldn’t place a bet on that if I was in Vegas,” he says.

For his part, Santorum ginned up expectations when talking to reporters Wednesday, while campaigning in Lenexa, Kansas.

“I think,” Santorum said, according to ABC, “we’re going to win here in Kansas.”

— Katrina Trinko is an NRO reporter.