The latest New York Times/Sienna survey of the Republican political landscape tells a familiar tale: Donald Trump remains the dominant figure in the GOP with the support of roughly half (54 percent) of the primary vote, and roughly half of (52 percent) of that half comes from Republican primary voters who will consider voting for no other candidate. We’re left with a race in which about a quarter of the GOP won’t vote for anyone other than Trump, another quarter won’t vote for him under any circumstances, and a vast middle of the Republican primary electorate is persuadable but leans toward Trump. That is the state of play that has pertained for months, and the persuadable vote remains unpersuaded by the non-Trump options.
Even beyond the headline horse-race numbers, the Times/Sienna poll makes especially clear the problem faced by those who hope to move the party past Trump. Fifty-six percent of Republican voters said that they believe that Trump “did not do anything wrong” in relation to the allegations of criminal misconduct brought against him by the Justice Department. And 71 percent said Trump had “not committed serious federal crimes.” Another 71 percent said it was imperative that the GOP “stand behind Trump.” Among those who think the Republican Party is obliged to support Trump’s criminal defense are 83 percent of voters who are “open to Trump” in the primaries, 63 percent of GOP voters who are backing DeSantis in the primaries, and nearly one-third of Republicans who describe themselves as not being open to pro-Trump arguments. In other words, believing that Trump is being persecuted isn’t exclusive to Trump supporters; it’s a GOP-wide phenomenon.
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