The Washington Post recently reported that by October 2021, the Biden administration had concluded an all-out Russian attack on Ukraine was inevitable. The Post described in detail how U.S. diplomacy was then mobilized to send the Kremlin clear signals about the consequences of such an attack, to convince Ukraine’s leadership that an invasion was imminent, and to develop with allies a plan for a unified response.
In essence, the Post article depicted a major success for U.S. intelligence. What it did not examine was the concomitant failures of U.S. intelligence-gathering and analysis: the overestimation of the capabilities of Russia’s forces and the underestimation of Ukraine’s willingness and ability to resist them.
Comments