Political earthquakes occur when the tectonic plates of elite and popular opinion begin grinding against one another. Nearly two decades ago, the shifts on immigration were just being noticed. Political elites were in a rush to welcome and regularize the enormous influx of illegal immigration through a combination of amnesty, guest-worker programs, and expanded legal immigration. They were happy with the changes that illegal immigration had brought to American society. It made labor-intensive service more affordable. Upwardly mobile families could afford to eat out more and hire babysitters and house-cleaners. But popular opinion roared back, eventually frightening Congress into giving up on comprehensive immigration reform in 2006. And it continued roaring until it delivered Donald Trump to the White House.
An omniscient news watcher could have seen the popular anger building up in countless “local news” stories, the sorts of tragedies with political import that don’t make it into the front section of the New York Times. I can’t forget one from my hometown. Everyone in town knew that illegal immigration from Guatemala was simply tolerated, until a horrible crime was committed. The immigrants not only resided in the country illegally, but they often packed into their apartments illegally. They were hired illegally. Because there were so few women in town to match up with them, they tended to a slightly more riotous lifestyle of permanent bachelors when off the clock.
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