Midterm Independent Voters: Pre-election Polls v. Exit Polls

One of the most striking findings in the exit polls from the 2022 midterm elections was that Democrats won independent voters. According to the exit polls, they won independents in the national vote for the House by a narrow margin of 49 percent to 47 percent, while winning those voters by a decisive margin in many of the headline races in battleground states.

It’s a finding that is surprising as a historical matter, and one that should give Republican campaigns serious pause. But is it accurate?

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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One of the most striking findings in the exit polls from the 2022 midterm elections was that Democrats won independent voters. According to the exit polls, they won independents in the national vote for the House by a narrow margin of 49 percent to 47 percent, while winning those voters by a decisive margin in many of the headline races in battleground states.

It’s a finding that is surprising as a historical matter, and one that should give Republican campaigns serious pause. But is it accurate?