The Trump administration is obviously working toward what it hopes will be an enduring cease-fire and a diplomatic settlement to the war in Ukraine. The administration has publicly dressed down Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky. It has had initial talks with Russian officials and has initiated its rare-earth-minerals deal with Ukraine, which President Trump views as an effective, if unofficial, security guarantee and a way of recovering American investment in the conflict. With Zelensky having already signaled that his government may exchange some territory for peace, it may seem like a deal is ready to be made. And it may be made soon.
But making it stick is another matter. There are several factors working against it.
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