Coronavirus & Herd Immunity: What’s Possible

Apoorva Mandavilli of the New York Times offered up a heaping serving of dire pessimism on Monday morning, warning that despite the still-active U.S. vaccination effort, the country is unlikely to reach herd immunity anytime soon, if ever.

“Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever,” Mandavilli wrote. “Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population. . . . Experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent.”

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Jim Geraghty

Jim Geraghty is the senior political correspondent of National Review.

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Apoorva Mandavilli of the New York Times offered up a heaping serving of dire pessimism on Monday morning, warning that despite the still-active U.S. vaccination effort, the country is unlikely to reach herd immunity anytime soon, if ever.

“Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever,” Mandavilli wrote. “Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population. . . . Experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent.”