The Future of Nuclear Non-Proliferation in East Asia Depends on Iran

The outcome of the war in Iran may determine whether our East Asian allies go for the bomb.

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South Korean Marines take position on a beach during a landing operation as part of the annual Hoguk military exercise in Pohang, South Korea, October 26, 2022.

Jung Yeon-je/Pool via Reuters

The world is currently mired in nuclear-induced instability in the Middle East. Yet an even greater nuclear shock looms in the Pacific if the U.S. is not careful. South Korea and Japan have both expressed concern that the Iran war has pulled U.S. military forces away from their defense. Questions abound in both countries about the credibility of Washington’s security commitment. Unless the U.S. adjusts its diplomatic and military posture in the war’s aftermath, the spread of nuclear weapons in East Asia is a real possibility.

To be sure, the ongoing military campaign in Iran could strengthen the barrier to nuclear proliferation. America’s last four presidents all committed to taking action should the ayatollahs stand poised to cross the nuclear finish line. After years of uncertainty, Donald Trump has upheld that commitment by degrading Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile arsenal — and for good reason.

Kyle Balzer

About the Author

Kyle Balzer

Kyle Balzer is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he specializes in nuclear strategy and policy.

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