The GOP’s Congressional Campaigns Shouldn’t Be So Confident in Their 2024 Prospects

By rights, this should be a good year for down-ballot Republicans. But there’s still plenty of cause for concern.

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Bernie Moreno speaks at the Columbiana County Lincoln Day Dinner in Salem, Ohio, March 15, 2024.

Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

There’s not a lot to love in the so-called minibus spending package that passed the House on Friday. Its primary purpose is to keep the government’s lights on, but conservative activist groups and Republican lawmakers have rightly looked askance at “its numerous expected earmarks, which are technically banned under the Senate GOP conference rules.” Indeed, the package only secured the votes of 101 Republicans — a minority of the House majority — because the prospect of a government shutdown is broadly (and rightly) perceived to be a graver political threat to the GOP’s electoral bottom line.

It’s easy to sympathize with Senator Mike Lee’s complaint that spending packages like these do not deserve Republican support. “We need Republicans who don’t suck,” Lee wrote. The obvious rejoinder to Lee’s understandable frustrations is that the GOP, therefore, needs to elect more Republicans. After all, the “minibus” may be undesirable, but it’s better than the legislative product that would sail through a wholly Democrat-led Congress. And if Republicans could count on bigger majorities in the House or even a majority in the Senate, the party would be able to preside over better legislative outcomes. So, how are the GOP’s prospects in this year’s congressional elections shaping up now that many of the party’s nominating contests are all but settled? Simply put, they should be better.

Noah Rothman

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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