Iran’s drone attack Thursday on a cargo ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz illustrates the folly of the Trump administration’s current posture toward the Iranian regime. (For more on the strike, see Noah’s excellent post.)
For all the pollyannish blather of President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and other administration officials, there has been no regime change in Iran. Many regime leaders were killed at the beginning of combat operations in late February, in combined American-Israeli operations. The dead include Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many top commanders of the regime’s backbone, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It’s also possible that Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son and supposed successor of the former ruler, is no longer among the living; he is reported to have been severely wounded during the aerial attack that killed his father and has not publicly been seen alive since then, although written statements continue to be issued in his name. (Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate in early June that he believes the younger Khamenei is probably alive and increasingly engaged in regime business, but there has been no visual corroboration of that assessment.)
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