The Man-vs.-Bear Fallacy

A silly social-media debate points to the kind of thinking that drives everything from Covid lockdowns to police-shooting hysteria.

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An Alaskan brown bear in the McNeil River State Game Sanctuary and Refuge

EEI_Tony/iStock/Getty Images

American and Canadian social-media users just experienced an interesting mass hysteria, which helps to illustrate several of the trends I discuss for National Review and in my academic writing: the idea of “my truth,” common problems with risk assessment, the tendency of empathic people to “simp” for photogenic but crazy ones, the base-rate and per capita fallacies, and more!

Prompted by a one-off post from a feminist X user (now gone forever in the e-mists), dozens of Twitter/X and Facebook accounts began asking their largely female audiences whether — while walking alone in the woods — they would rather encounter a man (say a solo male hiker) or a wild bear. Collegiate and professional women hurried to announce that, for Very Serious Logical Reasons, they would gladly pick the grizzly over Mr. REI.

Wilfred Reilly

About the Author

Wilfred Reilly

Wilfred Reilly is an associate professor of political science at Kentucky State University and the author, most recently, of Lies My Liberal Teacher Told Me.

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