New Jersey Governor Race: Some Promising Signs

Political journalism has focused intensely on the Virginia governor’s race for a bunch of reasons: It’s close, it’s a traditional bellwether, the state is home to a lot of national politics reporters, and the Democratic candidate has been prominent on the national stage for decades. Comparatively less attention has been paid to New Jersey, a state Democrats have won by at least 14 points in six of the last seven presidential elections, by nine or more points in seven straight Senate races, and by 14 points in Phil Murphy’s first race for the job in 2017. The New Jersey governorship nonetheless used to rotate between parties — while every Democrat to win the job since 1961 has won by double digits, no Democratic governor has been reelected since 1965, and Republicans ousted incumbent Democrats by 3.6 percent in 2009 and 1 percent in 1993, also winning squeakers in 1997 and 1981.

Murphy should have been a prime target if the state had not drifted so far into the blue column. New Jersey has taken a 1-2 punch from COVID and COVID lockdowns: the highest death rate of any political subdivision on the planet, but also the fourth-highest unemployment rate in the country (7.1 percent as of September 2021). Forced to choose between keeping his constituents safe and keeping the state open for business and schooling, Murphy chose neither. He infamously shared Andrew Cuomo’s ruinous early policy of sending infected senior citizens back to nursing homes.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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Political journalism has focused intensely on the Virginia governor’s race for a bunch of reasons: It’s close, it’s a traditional bellwether, the state is home to a lot of national politics reporters, and the Democratic candidate has been prominent on the national stage for decades. Comparatively less attention has been paid to New Jersey, a state Democrats have won by at least 14 points in six of the last seven presidential elections, by nine or more points in seven straight Senate races, and by 14 points in Phil Murphy’s first race for the job in 2017. The New Jersey governorship nonetheless used to rotate between parties — while every Democrat to win the job since 1961 has won by double digits, no Democratic governor has been reelected since 1965, and Republicans ousted incumbent Democrats by 3.6 percent in 2009 and 1 percent in 1993, also winning squeakers in 1997 and 1981.

Murphy should have been a prime target if the state had not drifted so far into the blue column. New Jersey has taken a 1-2 punch from COVID and COVID lockdowns: the highest death rate of any political subdivision on the planet, but also the fourth-highest unemployment rate in the country (7.1 percent as of September 2021). Forced to choose between keeping his constituents safe and keeping the state open for business and schooling, Murphy chose neither. He infamously shared Andrew Cuomo’s ruinous early policy of sending infected senior citizens back to nursing homes.