Trump Assassination Attempt: Political Implications for Biden and Others

It’s awful to think about politics in the face of a tragic shooting that resulted in one death, multiple injuries, and the near-assassination of a former president and soon-to-be Republican nominee, Donald Trump. With that said, the attempted assassination of a major political figure is inherently a political act — whatever motivated the shooter — so it seems remiss to not discuss how it could affect the election.

Some were pointing at Trump’s remarkable reaction — bloodied, defiant, and raising his fist to the crowd a minute after getting shot — and saying it would automatically win him the election. Maybe, but it’s hard to predict. Ronald Reagan famously received a huge bump in polls from surviving his assassination, while Gerald Ford survived two assassination attempts in one month in 1975, and it didn’t lead to higher approval or result in his reelection. Both of those incidents occurred during much different eras with much different context and involving much different political figures. Thus far, public opinion in this election has been remarkably resilient — Trump’s conviction and President Biden’s disastrous debate performance seem to have only altered the race by a few points — so we don’t know if even something of the magnitude of an attempted assassination on live television is going to result in a big change in polls.

About the Author

Philip Klein

Philip Klein is the editor of National Review Online.

Featured Tags

It’s awful to think about politics in the face of a tragic shooting that resulted in one death, multiple injuries, and the near-assassination of a former president and soon-to-be Republican nominee, Donald Trump. With that said, the attempted assassination of a major political figure is inherently a political act — whatever motivated the shooter — so it seems remiss to not discuss how it could affect the election.

Some were pointing at Trump’s remarkable reaction — bloodied, defiant, and raising his fist to the crowd a minute after getting shot — and saying it would automatically win him the election. Maybe, but it’s hard to predict. Ronald Reagan famously received a huge bump in polls from surviving his assassination, while Gerald Ford survived two assassination attempts in one month in 1975, and it didn’t lead to higher approval or result in his reelection. Both of those incidents occurred during much different eras with much different context and involving much different political figures. Thus far, public opinion in this election has been remarkably resilient — Trump’s conviction and President Biden’s disastrous debate performance seem to have only altered the race by a few points — so we don’t know if even something of the magnitude of an attempted assassination on live television is going to result in a big change in polls.