Trafalgar Election Polling: Republicans Competitive in Blue States

There are a bunch of big debates to tackle in analyzing what is happening in the 2022 election. Will the president’s poor approval ratings lead, as usual, to a wave election against his party? Are Hispanic voters realigning towards Republicans, or have they at least soured on Biden? Will Republicans be done in by weak Trump-backed candidates, or by Democratic anger at the Dobbs decision? Are the polls even telling us the real story?

There are certainly reasons for Republicans to be optimistic. As I explained at length in a 2014 study (which I’m overdue to update, but which was richly illustrated by that year’s elections), there is a long-standing tendency of Senate races in particular to break hard after mid September in one direction. That direction is indicated by the national trend reflected in presidential-approval ratings and the generic ballot. At this writing, Joe Biden’s job approval in the RealClearPolitics poll average is a grim 12 points underwater (42 percent approval, 54 percent disapproval), and the generic ballot, which has tended historically to overstate Democratic support, favors Democrats by just one point (45 percent to 44 percent). As David Byler of the Washington Post details, another sign of Republican strength is higher primary turnout than Democrats this cycle, traditionally an indicator of disparate enthusiasm.

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Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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There are a bunch of big debates to tackle in analyzing what is happening in the 2022 election. Will the president’s poor approval ratings lead, as usual, to a wave election against his party? Are Hispanic voters realigning towards Republicans, or have they at least soured on Biden? Will Republicans be done in by weak Trump-backed candidates, or by Democratic anger at the Dobbs decision? Are the polls even telling us the real story?

There are certainly reasons for Republicans to be optimistic. As I explained at length in a 2014 study (which I’m overdue to update, but which was richly illustrated by that year’s elections), there is a long-standing tendency of Senate races in particular to break hard after mid September in one direction. That direction is indicated by the national trend reflected in presidential-approval ratings and the generic ballot. At this writing, Joe Biden’s job approval in the RealClearPolitics poll average is a grim 12 points underwater (42 percent approval, 54 percent disapproval), and the generic ballot, which has tended historically to overstate Democratic support, favors Democrats by just one point (45 percent to 44 percent). As David Byler of the Washington Post details, another sign of Republican strength is higher primary turnout than Democrats this cycle, traditionally an indicator of disparate enthusiasm.