Republicans Should See Latino Community as Ally, not Threat

There has been a significant amount of garment-rending about the future of the GOP in recent years, as many conservatives worry that the party’s populist turn risks damaging its long-term brand. But the contemporary era in Republican politics has also yielded new and unpredictable electoral opportunities. If new polling is to be believed, for example, President Trump appears to be rapidly gaining ground on Joe Biden in Miami-Dade, the 2.7-million-person county that comprises the most populous voting district in the state of Florida. Biden is still decisively ahead of the president, but his most recent numbers mark a significant deterioration from the Democratic performance in the area four years ago. In 2016, the Trump campaign lost Miami-Dade to Hillary Clinton by a full 30 points; now, that gap has closed to about 17.

What’s most notable is that Trump is now leading Biden by a point or so with the area’s Hispanic voters, who make up 70 percent of Miami-Dade’s total population. Polling in a single county is insufficient evidence for sweeping political conclusions, of course. But Trump’s surprisingly good performance with Hispanic Floridians is mirrored by a number of different polls that suggest a national rightward movement among Latinos. In spite of his hardline rhetoric on immigration, Trump won nearly 30 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2016, and may well be on track to win a larger slice in 2020: As of June, only 59 percent of Hispanic voters said they plan to back Biden over Trump, a step down from the 66 percent that Hillary Clinton won four years ago. And by most metrics, Trump’s approval rating with Hispanics — currently hovering around 40 percent — has been steadily climbing since his inauguration.

About the Author

Nate Hochman

Nate Hochman was a staff writer at National Review.

Featured Tags

Manage following

Immigration

Republicans

There has been a significant amount of garment-rending about the future of the GOP in recent years, as many conservatives worry that the party’s populist turn risks damaging its long-term brand. But the contemporary era in Republican politics has also yielded new and unpredictable electoral opportunities. If new polling is to be believed, for example, President Trump appears to be rapidly gaining ground on Joe Biden in Miami-Dade, the 2.7-million-person county that comprises the most populous voting district in the state of Florida. Biden is still decisively ahead of the president, but his most recent numbers mark a significant deterioration from the Democratic performance in the area four years ago. In 2016, the Trump campaign lost Miami-Dade to Hillary Clinton by a full 30 points; now, that gap has closed to about 17.

What’s most notable is that Trump is now leading Biden by a point or so with the area’s Hispanic voters, who make up 70 percent of Miami-Dade’s total population. Polling in a single county is insufficient evidence for sweeping political conclusions, of course. But Trump’s surprisingly good performance with Hispanic Floridians is mirrored by a number of different polls that suggest a national rightward movement among Latinos. In spite of his hardline rhetoric on immigration, Trump won nearly 30 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2016, and may well be on track to win a larger slice in 2020: As of June, only 59 percent of Hispanic voters said they plan to back Biden over Trump, a step down from the 66 percent that Hillary Clinton won four years ago. And by most metrics, Trump’s approval rating with Hispanics — currently hovering around 40 percent — has been steadily climbing since his inauguration.