The Week: Iran Deal or No Deal?

• Maybe the UFC should be in charge of the White House press room too.

• Reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran have reached a tentative deal to trade our blockade of Iran for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with a continuation of the cease-fire for 60 days to allow more time for nuclear negotiations. Aware of discontent among his pro-war supporters, President Donald Trump has said he is in no rush to sign anything. But even in the worst case, Iran is going to end up in a reduced position from October 6, 2023. Its economy was already in crisis before the war. Now, its proxies have been devastated; much of its nuclear infrastructure has been wrecked; and its industrial plants have been hit hard. Whatever sanctions relief or revenue from the strait that it gets will be poured into rebuilding. The regime has to assume it can wait Trump out, hoping that anti-war Democrats win in 2026 and that any presidential successor in 2028 won’t be willing to risk open conflict once again. If the deal is unsatisfactory, it won’t be because the president’s negotiating skills are lacking but because we weren’t able or willing to set the military conditions for successful diplomacy, most importantly by reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

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• Maybe the UFC should be in charge of the White House press room too.

• Reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran have reached a tentative deal to trade our blockade of Iran for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with a continuation of the cease-fire for 60 days to allow more time for nuclear negotiations. Aware of discontent among his pro-war supporters, President Donald Trump has said he is in no rush to sign anything. But even in the worst case, Iran is going to end up in a reduced position from October 6, 2023. Its economy was already in crisis before the war. Now, its proxies have been devastated; much of its nuclear infrastructure has been wrecked; and its industrial plants have been hit hard. Whatever sanctions relief or revenue from the strait that it gets will be poured into rebuilding. The regime has to assume it can wait Trump out, hoping that anti-war Democrats win in 2026 and that any presidential successor in 2028 won’t be willing to risk open conflict once again. If the deal is unsatisfactory, it won’t be because the president’s negotiating skills are lacking but because we weren’t able or willing to set the military conditions for successful diplomacy, most importantly by reopening the Strait of Hormuz.