The Week: Welcome to the Stretch Run

• Nearly 60 years after his death, Winston Churchill is still winning battles.

• These are not great times for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, which has long since lost the across-the-map leads it held against Joe Biden. In national polling, Kamala Harris now holds a steady lead of nearly two points in the RealClearPolitics average and a three-point edge in the FiveThirtyEight average. Harris has pulled ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, inched past Trump in Georgia and Nevada, and closed to small gaps in North Carolina and Arizona. Pennsylvania seems a dead heat. Given that we are in the aftermath of the Democrats’ convention, however, this is not necessarily where Harris wants to be, either. She probably needs a three-point margin nationally to win the key states. If Trump wins North Carolina and Pennsylvania, he needs only to win Georgia or to win Arizona and Nevada; in either case, Michigan and Wisconsin are not must-win states for him. The endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the looming presidential debate could further shift the race. And recall that Trump is still polling better now than he did at this point in 2016 or 2020. If Trump just squeaks by, however, he’s unlikely to have coattails in the many key Senate races where Republicans are running behind him. Expect a lot more slugging and slogging.

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• Nearly 60 years after his death, Winston Churchill is still winning battles.

• These are not great times for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, which has long since lost the across-the-map leads it held against Joe Biden. In national polling, Kamala Harris now holds a steady lead of nearly two points in the RealClearPolitics average and a three-point edge in the FiveThirtyEight average. Harris has pulled ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, inched past Trump in Georgia and Nevada, and closed to small gaps in North Carolina and Arizona. Pennsylvania seems a dead heat. Given that we are in the aftermath of the Democrats’ convention, however, this is not necessarily where Harris wants to be, either. She probably needs a three-point margin nationally to win the key states. If Trump wins North Carolina and Pennsylvania, he needs only to win Georgia or to win Arizona and Nevada; in either case, Michigan and Wisconsin are not must-win states for him. The endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the looming presidential debate could further shift the race. And recall that Trump is still polling better now than he did at this point in 2016 or 2020. If Trump just squeaks by, however, he’s unlikely to have coattails in the many key Senate races where Republicans are running behind him. Expect a lot more slugging and slogging.